Daily Report

4 de Julho de 2025
Financial Markets | daily report 04.07.2025
  • U.S. sovereign yields advanced, the USD strengthened moderately and stocks rose after a solid labor market report and as House Republicans came together to pass Trump's budget bill (OBBBA). Investors trimmed expectations about Fed cuts, with market implied odds of a July cut down to 5% from 25%, and futures on December 2025's FFR rose over 10bp.
  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 147k in June (a solid figure, but with most growth coming from government, healthcare and education) and the unemployment rate nudged down to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings decelerated to 3.7% yoy. In a separate report, the ISM services rose to 50.8 points in June.
  • European stocks rose across the board, while euro area sovereign yields declined in both core and peripheral economies and reversed course from yesterday's contagion from UK markets. 10 year Gilts dropped nearly 10bp after UK PM Starmer backed the continuity of Rachel Reeves as Chancellor of the Exchequer.