Flash Notes

20 de Novembro de 2024
Monthly Report | Economic and Financial Market Outlook | November 2024
  • Despite the volatility of Portugal’s quarterly GDP growth readings, it is possible to glimpse a trend of acceleration, from less to more, in year-on-year comparisons. Indeed, the economy reached a momentum that can be considered weak, with an expansion of 1.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024, and has since accelerated to the 1.9% in the three months ending September, a trend we expect to continue in the coming months and throughout 2025, as we explain in this publication’s Dossier. Lower financing costs, a robust labour market and the stabilisation of inflation at 2% will boost household consumption and investment, which will also benefit from healthier balance sheets, given the lower level of indebtedness and accumulated savings. On the other hand, speeding up the implementation of EU funds will be decisive, not only for investment performance in the short term, but also for strengthening the economy’s capacity to generate value and potential output. Therefore, we anticipate a reinforcement of growth in 2025, slightly above 2% (2.3%).