Flash Notes

18 de Outubro de 2024
Monthly Report | Economic and Financial Market Outlook | October 2024

US elections in a new phase

This eventful election year, with over half of the world’s population being called to the polls, will soon culminate with the US presidential elections on 5 November, which will also see one third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives being up for re-election. The various possible combinations of results which will emerge from the nation’s checks and balances between the legislative and executive branches of the world’s leading economic power are particularly significant on this occasion. This is the case both due to the economic and geopolitical challenges that lie ahead and because of the antagonistic nature of the candidates’ profiles and programmes, as this increases the uncertainty surrounding what path economic and foreign policy will take over the next four years. Moreover, the contest is likely to be decided in just a handful of swing-state counties, with the consequent risk of challenges, vote recounts and delays in the final result that this entails.