Flash Notes

10 de Fevereiro de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | February 2026
  • GDP grew 0.8% qoq in Q425 motivated by a fall in imports. Domestic demand gave a negative contribution to growth due to a sudden decrease in investment at the end of the year. GDP grew 1.9% in 2025 (0.1 p.p. above our estimate). Risks to 2026 are marginally skewed to the upside given the robust carryover effect (circa 1.1 p.p.) and the persistence of favorable factors supporting growth; however, we have also to consider recent damage to fixed assets and infrastructure caused by adverse weather conditions that affected mainly the West and Center regions of the country.
  • Average inflation forecasted at 2.1% for 2026 (2.3% in 2025), suggesting a continued slowdown in prices supported by expected lower energy prices.
  • Labor market continues to surprise positively, with employment again in maximums and increasing at considerable growth rates. Employed population increased 0.1% qoq and 3.7% yoy in Q4.
  • The Residential Price Index from CI supports the increased upward pressure on residential real estate market in 2025, with an average change of 18.8% (10.2% in 2024), which is the highest figure since 2019. Also, after a moderate slowdown on the increase of bank valuations in the context of mortgage lending, the magnitude of its yoy change surpassed historical highs in December (19.1%).