Flash Notes

6 de Junho de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | June 2025
  • GDP fell 0.5% qoq in Q1, probably due to one-off factors, including a fall of 0.9% in private consumption (correcting the huge growth in Q4 2024) and a decline in external demand, with an increase of 1% in imports and a decrease of 0.4% in exports. We consider that the last two quarters must be seen together, with average growth in Q4 24 and Q1 25 of 0.45%, diluting the mentioned one-off effects. On a year-on-year basis, GDP advanced 1.6% (internal demand contributed with 3.5 p.p. while external demand took out 2 p.p.), with strong impact on the annual figure. This data has a strong carryover effect on growth in 2025, that implied a downward revision of our forecast for annual GDP in 2025 to 1.7%; however, activity is expected to remain resilient, supported by strong labour market, lower financing costs and good prospects for investment also supported by NG EU funds. And debt is low both in the private and public sector (below 95% of GDP), paving the way to more robust path ahead. This framework led to a downward revision of growth in 2025 by the EC to 1,8%, the OEDC to 1,9% and the Bank of Portugal to 1.6%.