Flash Notes

8 de Março de 2024
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | March 2024

Adjustments on the macroeconomic scenario

In 2023, GDP grew 2,3%. Domestic demand contributed with 1,4 p.p. and foreign demand with 0,9 p.p.. This behaviour brought the carryover effect to 0,5%, giving some support to growth in 2024. 1H24 will still be conditioned by the impact of high financing costs, but as the easing cycle by the ECB begins, an acceleration of activity is expected. More robust balance-sheets in the Public sector, companies and households (low debt levels), a still robust labour market, the acceleration of reforms and the PRR execution should also be key to growth dynamics in the next couple of years. All in all, we slightly revised growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1,6% and 2,3%, respectively; in the following years economy is seen to advance around 2,4% per year.