Adjustments on the macroeconomic scenario
In 2023, GDP grew 2,3%. Domestic demand contributed with 1,4 p.p. and foreign demand with 0,9 p.p.. This behaviour brought the carryover effect to 0,5%, giving some support to growth in 2024. 1H24 will still be conditioned by the impact of high financing costs, but as the easing cycle by the ECB begins, an acceleration of activity is expected. More robust balance-sheets in the Public sector, companies and households (low debt levels), a still robust labour market, the acceleration of reforms and the PRR execution should also be key to growth dynamics in the next couple of years. All in all, we slightly revised growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1,6% and 2,3%, respectively; in the following years economy is seen to advance around 2,4% per year.
BANCO BPI, S.A., com sede na Avenida da Boavista, 1117, 4100-129 Porto; Capital Social: € 1 293 063 324,98; matriculada na CRC Porto sob o número de matrícula PTIRNMJ 501 214 534, como o número de identificação fiscal 501 214 534. Intermediário financeiro registado na CMVM com o n° 300 e no Banco de Portugal sob o código n° 10. Agente de Seguros n.º 419527591, registado junto da Autoridade de Supervisão de Seguros e Fundos de Pensões em 21/01/2019, e autorizado a exercer atividade nos Ramos de Seguro Vida e Não Vida.