Flash Notes

13 de Março de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | March 2025

The economy surprised on the upside in 2024 and the prospects for 2025 improved. GDP grew 1.9% in 2024, after the 1.5% qoq increase in the last quarter of 2024. For 2025, the economy is seen to remain resilient: in a scenario of zero growth in all quarters of 2025, the economy will move forward by 1.3%, but this is not a likely scenario, given the existing growth support factors - NG EU funds, robust labour market, income recovery - so we have revised the growth forecast for 2025 from 2.3% to 2.4%. This revision was followed by a downward revision of qoq average growth to 0.45% (previously 0.65%), incorporating a more conservative stance, because of the international environment presents some risk factors with a potentially unfavourable impact on activity.