Flash Notes

18 de Setembro de 2025
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | September 2025
  • GDP increased 0.6% qoq in Q2 2025 (-0.4% in Q1), in line with BPI Research forecasts; on a year-on-year basis, growth reached 1.9% yoy (1.7% in Q1). The acceleration on the quarterly growth reflects the increase of private consumption and the less negative contribution of net external demand. We foresee GDP to advance 1.6% in 2025.
  • Inflation rises for the fifth consecutive month. The headline inflation rose 2.8% yoy in August and the core index grew 2.5%.
  • Labor market surprises positively in Q2 2025, with employment reaching new maximums. The employed population increased 2.9% yoy (the number of employed population represents the maximum since the beginning of the historical series, which started in 2011), a pace not seen since 2017 (excluding the pandemic period) and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%, minus 0.7 p.p. compared to Q1. 
  • The S&P upgraded Portugal’s sovereign rating to A+ from A, with stable outlook. Economic resilience, fiscal consolidation and lower public deficit ratio were the main drivers of the revision.