Daily Report

30 de Julho de 2026
Financial Markets | daily report 30.07.2026
  • Thursday was dominated by a hawkish-hold FOMC, ongoing AI-capex concerns, and a sharp re-escalation of the US-Iran war.
  • The latter pushed energy prices higher, lifting eurozone inflation expectations, particularly at the short end. Expectations for ECB rates moved higher, with markets pricing a 90% probability of a September hike. Eurozone sovereign bond yields rose, with peripheral spreads widening, ahead of today's euro area GDP releases.
  • The Fed left rates unchanged, but three of the 12 FOMC members already voted for a hike. Warsh reinforced the tightening bias, albeit without identifying a clear trigger. The probability of a September hike fell to 60%, from around 100% on Wednesday. The Treasury curve steepened as short-end yields fell and long-end yields rose.
  • In this context, the USD weakened against its peers, especially the euro. Equities fell sharply across the globe, led by AI-related stocks. European equities also closed lower, though energy stocks outperformed.