Flash Notes

9 de Janeiro de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | January 2026
  • Average inflation for 2025 at 2.3%. Looking ahead to 2026, our current forecast for global CPI is 2.1%, already very close to the target value and therefore maintaining the disinflationary trend of 2025.
  • Labor market continues to surprise positively, with employment again in maximums and increasing at considerable growth rates. Employed population increased 3.8% in November, a pace not seen since the post-pandemic period. Additionally, the unemployment rate continues at considerable low levels, having declined to 5.7% in November (vs 5.8% in October).
  • In Q3 2025, the House Price Index recorded a year-on-year change of 17.7%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the housing price index grew by 4.1%, six tenths less than in the previous quarter. Given the Q3 data, the fulfilment of our forecast for the average IPH appreciation in 2025 (15.8%) would imply a 2% decline in quarterly terms in Q4 2025, which does not seem likely. In the legislative field, a set of measures were approved aimed to increase supply with potential benefits in housing accessibility and impact on housing market valuation.