Flash Notes

12 de Outubro de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | October 2026
  • Geopolitical uncertainty, supply risks and low inventories continue to keep energy prices elevated. Brent has traded at $100–110/b since mid-September, while TTF averaged above €70/MWh in September.
  • The ECB raised the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% in September and signaled that further tightening is likely, amid a worsening energy outlook and increased risks of a significant and prolonged deviation of inflation from target.
  • Better than expected performance in Q3 and INE’s revision of the GDP series justified upward revision in our growth prediction in 2026 to 2.3%, +0.5 p.p. than previously expected.
  • Global CPI increased to 3.6% in September (3.3% in August). Core inflation stood at 2.7%, stabilizing compared to the previous month. The acceleration of the CPI was almost entirely explained by the increase in fuel prices (15.4% in energy, according to flash estimates).