Flash Notes

10 de Setembro de 2026
Portugal Macroeconomic and financial outlook | September 2026
  • The lack of progress towards de-escalation in the Middle East and continued hostilities between the US and Iran are keeping energy markets under pressure.
  • In Portugal, GDP growth in 2T 2026 surprised on the upside (+0.8% qoq and 2.5% yoy). Domestic demand remained strong despite the weaker investment performance and the slowdown in private consumption. External demand continued to make a negative contribution to both figures. Growth significantly exceeded our expectations (we were forecasting 0.3% qoq growth and a 1.9% yoy growth), therefore an upward revision of our scenario is ongoing.
  • In August Global CPI increased to 3.3% (3.0% in July). Core inflation increased slightly to 2.7% (from 2.6% in June), possibly reflecting some lagged effects of the energy shock. The acceleration of the CPI in August was almost entirely explained by the increase in fuel prices.